The cost of a Christmas dinner by 2030

• Based on current inflation rates, Christmas dinners could cost over £50 by 2030.
• Aldi would still be the cheapest but could rise to £33.01.
• Waitrose could even rise to £60.88 in cost.

New research has revealed the cost of a Christmas dinner by 2030, with the average dinner for a family of four potentially costing more than £50 six years from now.

Where do you buy your Christmas dinner from? Based on research. Aldi would still be the cheapest but could rise to £33.01 while Waitrose could rise to £60.88 by 2030.

The cost of a Christmas dinner by 2030

Average cost in 2024

Estimated average cost by 2030

£42.38

£50.34

It found that the average Christmas dinner could cost around £50.34 by 2030, which is up from the 2024 average cost of £42.38. This is based on the rate of inflation between 2014 and 2023, which is 2.91% on average. 

The supermarkets with the cheapest cost of a Christmas dinner by 2030

Rank

Supermarket

Est cost in 2024

Est cost by 2030

1

Aldi

£27.79

£33.01

2

Tesco

£40.89

£48.57

3

ASDA

£41.04

£48.75

4

Sainsbury's

£44.39

£52.73

5

Morrisons

£48.91

£58.10

6

Waitrose

£51.25

£60.88

The study also looked at how the 2030 costs of individual supermarkets could change. Aldi could go from £27.79 to £33.01 and remain the cheapest, and Waitrose could go from £51.25 to £60.88, remaining the most expensive. The most expensive component of a Christmas dinner, a large turkey, could increase from £26.21 on average to £31.13.

Commenting on the findings, Sujan Shah, CEO of Carrier Bag Shop, said: "If inflation rates do grow on the same scale up until 2030, it's likely the consumer will feel the pinch.

"This shows how important it can be to make sustainable and budget-friendly choices when shopping in general and not just for the holiday season.

"It will be interesting to see if regular consumers of these individual supermarkets start buying their Christmas dinner ingredients from elsewhere, or people will choose to pay either if the quality is good enough."

Source: Office for National Statistics, Aldi, Tesco, ASDA, Sainsbury's, Morrisons, Waitrose

Methodology:

1. The objective of this analysis was to use inflation data to estimate the cost of a typical Christmas meal by 2030.
2. The cost of common Christmas meal ingredients was found from 6 common UK grocery store chains (Tesco, Sainsbury's, Morrison's, ASDA, Aldi, and Waitrose). The cost advertised online for the ingredients in the table below was used to find a total estimated cost for a Christmas meal from each supermarket.
3. If a supermarket didn't have the exact item in the list, the closest equivalent was used (i.e. – Aldi's brand of "Like Grandma's" Yorkshire Puddings, 220g vs the name brand carried by the other supermarkets, "Auntie Bessie" Yorkshire Puddings with the same mass).
4. The estimated cost for each supermarket was then averaged together to get an average cost of a Christmas meal in 2024.
5. Data on the rate of inflation was taken from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), and the rate of inflation from 2014 to 2023 was used to find an average annual rate of inflation for the past 10 years.

Prices were collected for the following items:

• Turkey, large
• Sage & Onion Stuffing Mix, Paxo, 340g
• Onion gravy granules, Bisto 190g
• Pigs in blankets, frozen 12
• Brussels sprouts, 500g
• Carrots, 1kg
• Mince Pies, 4 pack
• Yorkshire Puddings, 220g, Aunt Bessie's
• Potatoes, all rounder 2kg
• Parsnips 500g